Although I'm pissed pissed pissed about Pawlenty.
Since I already did a bunch of this work three weeks ago, I'll just go to my prediction post and use that to talk about these races.
Since I am only limited in my omniscience, the following prediction is particularly full of hot air.As of this second, the corporate media tell us that the Dems have gained 26 in the House, and the Senate is down to Virginia, Montana, and Missouri. And Webb is claiming victory >>YES!!<< so the Senate could be Dem +1, or not. Although Joe Fucking Liebermann (lost 5 bucks on that) (and another 5 on Hatch, if he loses... fucker...) anyway, Liebermann could sell out the Democrats. He lied about respecting the primary, why not this?
National Prediction: Democrats Take House +10, Republicans Control Senate +1
Go to a more inside-baseball site to read more on this. I just think that the local littler races will fall Dem, while the larger targets will be worked hard by the Reps.
My prayer was for 235-200. I'm shocked by how widespread the Dem House pickups are across the country. Holy shit.
Minnesota PredictionsSince the results were Klobuchar 58%, Kennedy 38%, IP-Guy(Fitzgerald) 3%, Cavlan .5%, Gold Fetuses with Guns (Powers) .25%, and since my predictions add up to 110%, I've got to give myself credit for hitting the Klobe number pretty exactly, and the depth of the disgust with the smarmy prick Kennedy was hidden by my extra 10%. Decent on the IP total, but silly-wrong on the Green and the Gold.
US Senate: Amy Klobuchar 57%, Mark Kennedy 45%, IP-Guy 4%, Mike Cavlan 3%, Right of the Fetus to Buy a Gun with Gold Coins (Constitution Party) 1%
Start with the easy one. Mark Kennedy is a creep, and people know it. Amy's personable and seems tough. While my hope is that Cavlan breaks 5%, the media blackout on all Greens militates against it.
The media blackout on the Greens did its job.
Governor: Mike Hatch by a hairFuck fuck fuckkity-fuck fuck fuck. Fuck. My roomie bitched at me for bitching about Hutchinson - how can you diss third parties? My answer - the IPer's suck. That party exists to give Democrats who dislike poor people and pro-choice Republicans a home, and since there are more of the former than the latter, Hutchinson effectively gives it to Pawlenty.
Not much to say about this. Pawlenty is telegenic, but also a fucktard. Hatch's campaign? I've not seen it. Don't know if it's in the grassroots, but with his top-down management style, I somewhat doubt it. Hutchinson, who is propped up by people who (so far as I can tell) were liberal when they were younger, but can't quite sell out ALL the way (but they sure don't like real populism), gets crap. And deserves it! (Ooooh! My greatest accomplishment was that I tried to privatize the Minneapolis School System! And I failed!) (wanker)
The smears on Hatch were bad, but could have been countered with something grassroots. In the face of incredible anti-Republican sentiment, Hatch loses it. I predict that the top-down structure of the DFL will get some shaking up.
Attorney General: Lori SwansonDing, dong, Mary Evil Fucking Kiffmeyer's dead (the witch is dead) The witch is dead!!!
Because the Democrats are going to do well in the state.
Secretary of State: Mark Ritchie
Because more people are ticked off about Mary Evil Fucking Kiffmeyer than there are Republicans who really want to make sure she can bias elections.
(apologies to all witches.) (and see the original post for a long rant about the banal evil of Mary Evil Fucking Kiffmeyer.)
State Auditor: Don't know, but the best chance for the Greens to get 5%.It was the best race for the Greens at over 2%. Not good enough. Otto - decent, who cares.
So if you want to see the Greens returned to major-party status, so the corporate media (and their MPR affiliate) will need to come up with a new reason to exclude them from coverage, vote Dave Berger for Auditor.
Congressional races: Two DFL pickupsFoley not good enough. We now have someone in the US House who follows a faith that calls the Pope the AntiChrist. Great news on Walz!!! (as I'm a 1st CD boy.) Too bad on Rowley. And Wetterling's campaign sucked.
I think that Wetterling's going to beat Bachmann because of Foley. I think Rowley or Walz will win, but not both. I think Wendy Wilde will give Ramstad the best run for a long time. Ellison will win. And I will celebrate. The rest of the pack are going to stick with the incumbent, even though Colin Peterson's a Torture Democrat.
State House and Senate: Democratic winsMortenson only got 15%. But the Republicans were CREAMED by the DFL.
Even without Matt Entenza's wife's money, the national mood and the creepiness of Pawlenty and Kennedy will give the DFL what they need to take over. Jesse Mortenson, the only Green running for one of these seats (in Entenza's old district) will get in the high 30s.
Overall, I'm pleased by the predictions - although they were mostly conventional wisdom. Like almost-pegging the Klobe number. And Webb - fuck yeah!!!