First, the scandal du jour, Mark Foley (R-NAMBLA) and the coverup by the phlegmatic Denny Hastert will continue and hurt the national Republicans BADLY. Nothing like a gay Rep coming on to 16-year olds to disgust your homophobic right-wing base!
Second, Karl Rove will try and pull something out of HIS butt, which may involve Iran.
Now, I know we all love the feeding frenzy surrounding the Foley page scandal. But there are two points to remember:
1) The corporate media is still corporate. The institutional biases against us are still powerful.
2) The Bush Regime is made up of evil motherfuckers who will do what they can to cling to power.
Now - I'm not saying that they'll just cheat their asses off and steal the election. Nope, while I don't doubt that they have a ton of dirty tricks, some involving computerized voting machines, these tools are just that - tools. They are not magic wands that give them what they want, each and every time. So they can affect some X amount of races - but if there's a massive 'vote the bastards out' sweep, they can only do so much.
What I am saying is that it won't be clear massive sailing all the way, at least in the CorporateMediaWorld.
Nevertheless, there are strong indications that nationally the Democrats will make major pickups. As in, Iraq sucks and people are pissed off, beyond the point of propaganda to hide it.
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.(supposedly sourced to Nazi Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels)
Since I am only limited in my omniscience, the following prediction is particularly full of hot air.
National Prediction: Democrats Take House +10, Republicans Control Senate +1
Go to a more inside-baseball site to read more on this. I just think that the local littler races will fall Dem, while the larger targets will be worked hard by the Reps.
US Senate: Amy Klobuchar 57%, Mark Kennedy 45%, IP-Guy 4%, Mike Cavlan 3%, Right of the Fetus to Buy a Gun with Gold Coins (Constitution Party) 1%
Start with the easy one. Mark Kennedy is a creep, and people know it. Amy's personable and seems tough. While my hope is that Cavlan breaks 5%, the media blackout on all Greens militates against it.
Governor: Mike Hatch by a hair
Not much to say about this. Pawlenty is telegenic, but also a fucktard. Hatch's campaign? I've not seen it. Don't know if it's in the grassroots, but with his top-down management style, I somewhat doubt it. Hutchinson, who is propped up by people who (so far as I can tell) were liberal when they were younger, but can't quite sell out ALL the way (but they sure don't like real populism), gets crap. And deserves it! (Ooooh! My greatest accomplishment was that I tried to privatize the Minneapolis School System! And I failed!) (wanker)
Attorney General: Lori Swanson
Because the Democrats are going to do well in the state.
Secretary of State: Mark Ritchie
Because more people are ticked off about Mary Evil Fucking Kiffmeyer than there are Republicans who really want to make sure she can bias elections.
Speaking of which, as I'm trying to find out who the hell is running for State Auditor, I've just spent 10 minutes trying to track it down. MPR and the Strib, being bastions of democracy in action (NOT) don't have the race listed in their 'Election 2006' coverage. To be more exact: the Strib covers the US Senate, the Governor's and the US Congress races (and has a broken MyVote link, that gives you primary results and not candidate listings, which it implies it will...) and MPR adds the Attorney General's race. Whatever credit MPR might get for adding that one race is lost in its 'select a candidate' quiz, which ignores the Greens and others. Losers.
So I go to the Secretary of State's webpage, click on Elections, and try and find a list of candidates. NOT THERE! I then click on the 'Candidates and Referenda' link, and get - what, a list of candidates? Nope! Crap for candidates running (how to file financials) and that's it! Referenda? Roads and the constitutional amendment, which has a 'list of groups for, against, or neutral', which lists Citizens for Bigger Roads. And that's it. (Another reason to vote against the constitutional amendment.)
FINALLY, I go back to the homepage, and there's the charmingly titled 'State and Federal Candidates for Partisan Office Advancing to the General Election,' which takes me to... a list of candidates? NOPE! An Excel database download (Don't have Excel? Don't get to find out!) which lists all the candidates in a crappy format!
God, I'll be glad to see the end of this woman!
Where was I? Oh, yeah.
State Auditor: Don't know, but the best chance for the Greens to get 5%.
So if you want to see the Greens returned to major-party status, so the corporate media (and their MPR affiliate) will need to come up with a new reason to exclude them from coverage, vote Dave Berger for Auditor.
Congressional races: Two DFL pickups
I think that Wetterling's going to beat Bachmann because of Foley. I think Rowley or Walz will win, but not both. I think Wendy Wilde will give Ramstad the best run for a long time. Ellison will win. And I will celebrate. The rest of the pack are going to stick with the incumbent, even though Colin Peterson's a Torture Democrat.
State House and Senate: Democratic wins
Even without Matt Entenza's wife's money, the national mood and the creepiness of Pawlenty and Kennedy will give the DFL what they need to take over. Jesse Mortenson, the only Green running for one of these seats (in Entenza's old district) will get in the high 30s.
So there you have it! Nihilix's predictions! Enjoy!